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What is Credit Card?

A credit card is part of a system of payments named after the small plastic card issued to users of the system. It is a card entitling its holder to buy goods and services based on the holders promise to pay for these goods and services.[1]. The issuer of the card grants a line of credit to the consumer (or the user) from which the user can borrow money for payment to a merchant or as a cash advance to the user. A credit card is different from a charge card, where a charge card requires the balance to be paid in full each month. In contrast, credit cards allow the consumers to 'revolve' their balance, at the cost of having interest charged. Most credit cards are issued by local banks or credit unions, and are the same shape and size as specified by the ISO 7810 standard.

Archive for the 'US Dollar' Category

Fed to Hold Rates for the Near Term

Aug. 12th 2009

Over the last week, the markets have been abuzz with chatter about how the US recession will soon come to and end, followed by a quick and healthy recovery. According to investor logic, the result would be a rise in inflation and interest rates. This optimism was partially deflated today, as the Federal Reserve bank conducted its annual monetary policy meeting.

Excluding a brief uptick in June (see chart below courtesy of the Cleveland Fed), investors had long come to expect that the Fed would leave its benchmark Federal Funds rate unchanged, at 0-.25%. At the same time, there was a strong belief that the Fed would begin to hike rates at the end of 2009, and comment accordingly in the press release that accompanied its monetary policy decision. Barron’s predicted yesterday: “The statement will acknowledge some improvement in the U.S. economy, though it will imply that this nascent growth reflected in recent gross domestic product reports is fragile and will be monitored closely. This will leave open the specter that interest rates could be increased at some point in the future.”

Sure enough, the Fed left rates unchanged, and its press release conveyed a restrained sense of hope that the worst of the recession is now behind us: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks…Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate…a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.” The Fed also announced that its Treasury buying activities would soon come to an end, although it may continue to buy mortgage securities as part of its quantitative easing program.

Perhaps the tone of the press release was slightly less positive than investors would have liked, since interest rate futures dived immediately on the news. Especially compared to last week, investors are now assuming that it will be a while before the Fed actually hike rates: “At Wednesday’s settlement price of 99.655, the February fed-funds futures contract priced in about a 38% chance for a 0.5% funds rate after the late-January meeting. That’s down sharply from about a 60% chance at Tuesday’s settlement, about a 76% chance at Monday’s settlement, and about a 96% chance at last Friday’s settlement.” Analysis of options trading activity reveals that the large brokerage houses believe similarly.

As for the Dollar, it now seems possible that last week’s rally was premature. If the Fed isn’t prepared to hike rates anytime soon, then the current interest rate differentials between the US and the rest of the world will remain intact. More importantly, the Dollar will remain a viable funding currency for carry trades, and the shift of funds into higher-yielding alternatives will probably continue for the time being.

Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Central Banks, US Dollar | No Comments »

Dollar Reverses Course

Aug. 10th 2009

A recent WSJ headline reads, Good Economic News Threatens the Dollar, and summarizes the Dollar’s trading pattern as follows: “Demand for the U.S. currency continues to erode amid a tide of more encouraging economic data and corporate earnings that have fed a thirst for riskier assets such as stocks, commodities, and growth-sensitive currencies.”

Less than two weeks after that article was published, the Dollar rose by a healthy 2% against the Euro in only one trading session, as US labor market conditions improved slightly: “The U.S. unemployment rate fell in July for the first time in 15 months as employers cut far fewer jobs than expected, giving the clearest indication yet that the economy was turning around from a deep recession.” While technically another 250,000 jobs were lost and economists forecast that the employment rate will rise past 10% before peaking, investor sentiment is still at a high.

Archive for the 'Australian Dollar' Category

Canadian Dollar Slated to Outperform Other Commodity Currencies

Jul. 29th 2009

In the same vein as Monday’s and Tuesday’s posts (covering the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar, respectively), I’d like to use today’s post to look at another commodity currency - the Canadian Dollar. The Loonie, it turns out, has also benefited from the a recovery in risk appetite and concomitant boom in commodity prices; it has appreciated by 7% against the USD in the last month alone, en route to a ten-month high. “All in all, with almost everything going its way these days (besides the crummy weather and the impact on tourism), a return trip to parity - last visited nearly one year ago - doesn’t seem far fetched,” chimes one optimistic analyst.

Like Australia and New Zealand, Canada’s economic fate is tied closely to commodity prices. Simply, as oil and other natural resources have inched closer to last year’s record highs, the Loonie has rebounded proportionately. “Raw materials account for more than 50 percent of Canada’s export revenue. Crude is the nation’s largest export.” Of course, this relationship works both ways. Any indication that the global economic recovery is stalling, and commodities prices would likely tumble, bringing commodity currencies down likewise.

Unlike the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar, the Loonie has never really held much appeal as a carry trade currency. Even at their peak, Canadian interest rates were mediocre, from the standpoint of yield. The current rate is a measly .25%, compared to 2.5% in New Zealand and 3% in Australia. Moreover, while Australia may begin tightening as soon as the fall, “The Bank of Canada committed to keep its key policy rate at the lowest possible level until the spring of 2010,” after voting to hold rates at yesterday’s rate setting meeting. This interest differential could explain why the Aussie has outpaced the Loonie of late.

Another key difference - and potential explanation for the currencies’ recent divergence - is that Australia is considered part of the Asian economic zone, while Canada’s economic fortunes are closely aligned with those of its main trading partner, the US. China, alone, is helping to lift Australia out of recession. The US, meanwhile, is still struggling to find its feet. Hence, it is projected that Canadian GDP will contract by 2.3% in 2009, while Australian GDP may fall by a modest .5%. “When things look bad, you are more likely to sell Canada than the Australian dollar because its economy is moderated by Asian growth,” explains one analyst.

Going forward, this regional differentiation could actually work to the advantage of Canada, which is forecast to grow by an impressive 3% in 2010, compared to 1% growth in Australia. Accordingly, one analyst advises that “Investors should sell Australia’s dollar against Canada’s as a ‘relative commodity play’ because an attempt by China to reign in bank lending on concern it may be creating asset-price bubbles could slow Asian growth…’The Canadian dollar should outperform because it is much more closely linked to a recovery in the U.S.’ “

Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar | 2 Comments »

Reserve Bank of Australia Could be the First to Hike Rates

Jul. 28th 2009

Based on the chart below, which plots the Australian Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar over the last two years, one might be tempted to conclude that the two currencies are identical for all intents and purposes. Rather than suffer the inconvenience of separately analyzing the Australian Dollar, why not just read yesterday’s post on the New Zealand Dollar, and leave it at that?

But this chart belies the fact that while the two currencies, have risen and fallen (in near lockstep) in sync with the ebb and flow of risk aversion, this could soon change. While the near-term prospects for the New Zealand economy are dubious, sentiment towards the Australian economy is more consistently optimistic. “Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the nation’s economic downturn may not be ‘one of the more serious’ of the post-World War II era.” In addition, “Stevens said the nation’s economy may rebound faster than the central bank had predicted six months ago on improving confidence among consumers and businesses alike.” The latest projections are for a fall in .5% contraction in GDP in 2009 followed by a 1% rise in 2010.

Meanwhile, government spending is surging: “The Australian government forecast its largest budget deficit on record of A$57.6 billion for fiscal year 2009-10, or 4.9% of GDP.” Combined with the steady recovery in commodity prices and the resumption of residential construction, this could soon trickle down through the Australian economy in the form of inflation. It’s no wonder, then, that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could begin tightening interest rates as early as December, in order to mitigate against the possibility of inflation in 2011 and 2012.

In fact, Governor Glen Stevens has been raising eyebrows with his unequivocal comments about raising rates. “I’ve never seen written down … I’ve never heard in discussion in the institution, some rule of thumb that says we wait until unemployment’s peaked before we lift the cash rate…I think it depends what else is happening, and also depends how low you went. We eased very aggressively,” he said recently. As a result, traders are betting that rates will be 1.13% higher one year from now than they are today.

This development should be of especial interest to forex traders. Australian interest rates are already the highest in the industrialized world. When you consider “the market’s expectations that the RBA is likely to be the G-10 central bank which is likely to hike first,” it goes a long way towards explaining the 18% rise in the Aussie that has taken place in 2009 alone. Compare a hypothetical 4% RBA benchmark rate to the .1% in Japan and ~0% in the US, and carry traders will start to salivate.

Ring Fences, Rustlers and a global bank insolvency

In this week which has seen so much speculation on the fate of Lehman Brothers, it seems only sensible to review how an international insolvency of a major bank works and what it might mean for international creditors. The insolvency treatment of international banks has remained one of the stubbornly difficult areas of law to harmonise and huge uncertainty and complexity remains. For excellent background, see Cross-border bank insolvency by Rosa Maria Lastra of Queen Mary, University of London.Although markets are global, and Lehman Brothers operations span the globe, all insolvency is local. The basic premise is that each jurisdiction buries its own dead and keeps whatever treasure or garbage it finds with the corpse. Local creditors get to recover their claims out of the locally available assets. If, and only if, there are any assets left over will international creditors be invited to make a claim for the rest. Europe has managed to harmonise cross-border insolvency for banks under directives and local law to embody principles of universality and unity within the EU, but that only works equitably if enough assets are in the EU when the bank fails, and local insolvency law still applies in all its divergent complexity.Claims against a bank are deemed located wherever the contract creating the claim is undertaken. If it is under US law then the claimant must look to the liquidator in the United States and assets under his control for recovery. If the claim is in Hong Kong, then the claimant looks to the Hong Kong receiver and assets.The key to having a happy insolvency, if such a thing exists, lies in ensuring that when a globalised bank goes bust, all the best assets are inside your borders and subject to seizure by your liquidators on behalf of your creditors. Everyone else outside your borders is on their own. As the US dollar is the reserve currency of banking and US Treasuries, Agencies and other assets are the highest preferred asset class, the US is almost always in a good position in an international bank failure.The principle of using local assets for local recovery is known as the “ring fence” – the idea being that insolvency drops an invisible “ring fence” around any valuable assets at the borders to meet claims arising within the borders. No country is more assiduous in weaving the ring fence than the United States of America. It is a very successful strategy for US creditors. US creditors of failed international banks tend to recover disproportionately relative to creditors anywhere else. The ring fence contains all these choicest assets for US creditors, and all the international creditors are forced to pick among the dross of foreign assets to eke out a recovery, only receiving any residual US assets remaining after US creditors get 100 percent recovery.Lehman has been deeply troubled and subject to speculation since the early spring. That was just about the time that we started to see a marked sell off in foreign markets where Lehman has long been a major player. Recently, along with intensification of that sell off, we have seen a strengthening of the US dollar and US asset markets.If one were cynical, and one believed that Lehman was going to be allowed to fail pour encouragement les autres one might wonder if Lehman was quietly bidden – or even explicitly ordered – to sell off its foreign holdings and repatriate the proceeds to asset classes within the US ring fence. This would ensure that US creditors of Lehman received a satisfactory recovery at the expense of foreign creditors. It would also contribute to a nice pre-election illusion of a “flight to quality” as US dollar and assets strengthened on the direction of flow.If one were really cynical, one might even think that a wily bank supervisor might arrange to ensure 100 percent recovery for its creditors with a bit of creative misappropriation thrown in the mix. Broker dealers normally hold securities and other assets in nominee name on behalf of their investor clients. Under modern market regulation, these nominee assets are supposed to be held separately from a firm’s own assets so that they can be protected in an insolvency and restored to the clients with minimal loss and inconvenience. Liberalisations and financial innovations have undermined the segregation principle by promoting much more intensive use of client assets for leverage (prime brokerage and margin lending) and alternative income streams (securities lending). As a result, it is often very difficult to discern in a failed broker who has the better claim to assets which were held to a client account but reused for finance and/or trading purposes. The main source of evidence is the books of the failed broker.On the wholesale side, margin and collateralisation in connection with derivatives and securities finance arrangements mean that creditors under these arrangements should have good delivery and secure legal claims to assets provided under market standard agreements. As a result, preferred wholesale creditors could have been streamed the choicest assets under arrangements that will look above suspicion on review as being consistent with market best practice.If Lehman were to go into insolvency, I will be interested to discover whether US creditors achieve a much higher proportion of recovery than their global peers in other locations where Lehman did business. If so, it will likely be because of the US ring fence and the months of repatriation of assets and funds back into the confines of the ring fence before the failure was finally orchestrated. It will also be because the choicest assets were preferentially delivered to preferred US creditors under market standard margin and collateral arrangements.Unfortunately, the pace of an international insolvency means that any retrospective evaluation will be so far down the road that I will likely be almost alone in looking backwards to see what the final distribution effects are and what they mean for equitable principles of international banking practice.

Previous years entries statistics

The table below displays the total entries received by the State Dep. during the previous years of the Green Card lottery program. For paper based programs, the high number of "Disqualified Forms" is due to missing information, wrong format, wrong addressing and other misinterpretation of the requirements. For electronic based program, the high number of "Eliminated" entries is due to exact duplicates and elimination through facial recognition technology.

Program	Period	Qualified	Eliminated
DV-2009	Oct 4, 2007 - Dec 3, 2007	9.1 million	--
DV-2008	Oct 4, 2006 - Dec 3, 2006	6.4 million	--
DV-2007	Oct 5, 2005 - Dec 4, 2005	5.5 Million	82,447
DV-2006	Nov 5, 2004 - Jan 7, 2005	6.3 Million	36,555
DV-2005	Nov 1, 2003 - Dec 30, 2003	5.9 Million	--
		Entries Received	Qualified	Disqualified
DV-2004	Oct 7, 2002 - Nov 6, 2002	10.2 Million	7.3 Million	2.9 Million	28%
DV-2003	Oct 1, 2001 - Oct 31, 2001	8.7 Million	6.2 Million	2.5 Million	29%
DV-2002	Oct 2, 2000 - Nov 1, 2000	13 Million	10 Million	3 Million	23%
DV-2001	Oct 4, 1999 - Nov 3, 1999	13 Million	11 Million	2 Million	15%
DV-2000	Oct 1, 1998 - Oct 31, 1998	10.5 Million	8 Million	2.5 Million	24%
DV-99	Octo 24, 1997 - Nov 24, 1997	5.8 Million	3.4 Million	2.4 Million	41%
DV-98	Feb 3, 1997 - May 5, 1997	6 Million	4.7 Million	1.3 Million	22%

Green card Lottery Basics

The official name of the green card lottery program is the Diversity Visa Program (DV). The U.S. State
Department provides over two hundred different types of visas for people to work and live in America
legally. However, the DV program is the most unique one out there. Many of the visas the U.S Department
issues contain strict set of qualifications. With the DV program, all that is needed is some basic education requirements and a bit of good luck. Millions of people apply each year, but only 50,000 received a Green
Card through the DV program.

The intention of the program is to make America more diversified, which means a balance of different ethnicities joining into the melting pot of America. Before 1965, many of the U.S. immigration laws favored a Northern European immigration wave. However, The United States Congress decided to give this opportunity to relatives of American citizens or permanent residents, regardless of origin, and Asians, Africans, and Latin Americans began arriving in record numbers. In 1995, Congress decided the lottery should cover the whole world-except those countries thought to be overrepresented in the immigrant pool. Winners of the green
card lottery also qualify for citizenship.

The DV lottery program is headquartered in Williamsburg, Kentucky. The Kentucky Consular Center in Williamsburg registers and notifies the winners of the diversity lottery. The actual submission date for the
Green Card Lottery usually takes place between October-December. Those applicants who correctly filled
out the application are assigned a computerized generated number. Once the deadline for submission of
applications has passed, the computer then randomly picks over 100,000 applications for further consideration
in the D.V program. Through the months of March-August of the following year, people who won are sent their winner documents by regular mail.

Selection in the Green Card Lottery program does not automatically translate into a Green Card. After an
applicant has been chosen for further consideration, he or she will go through a series of steps with U.S. officials such as a security background check, a personal interview with a U.S. Consul and many forms to
fill out before she or she is grantedgranted a Green Card. Only after all checks out a person may be granted
a Green Card.

Green Card Lottery

Live and Work in the U.S.A. Usafis Green Card Lottery Application Service What is the U.S. Green Card Lottery? Each year, the Diversity Lottery (DV) Program makes 50,000 immigrant visas available through a lottery. If you receive a visa through the Diversity Visa Lottery Program you and your family will be authorized to live and work permanently in the United States. *Green Card Winners will get FREE Airline ticket to the USA Can I Win? There are 2 simple requirements to participate in this USA Green Card Lottery. Find out whether you are eligible. FREE Eligibility Test! Important to all visitors Green Card Lottery Application, will be available only online at the State Department dedicated website - No more regular mailing of applications. From the State Department Rule for the DV Program: "Alien petitioners for the Diversity Visa Program will no longer be permitted to submit a petition by mail. Instead, the Department will require that all petitions be submitted to it in an electronic format, using an Internet website dedicated specifically to the submission and receipt of Diversity Visa." Click here to read more about the changes made to this year's American Green Card Lottery Program. Feature Offered US State Department Website Usafis Organization Website Same chance to all participants to win Free of charge Free airline ticket to winners to come to the USA* Allow sending photos by regular mail Click here for complete list overview Official U.S. Government Program The Green Card Lottery program was established under the Immigration and Nationality Act and was approved by the U.S. Congress Read the official Act from the State Department Can I register online to participate in the Green Card Lottery? Yes, the Usafis website is now accepting registrations for the American Green Card Lottery - Year 2009. Click here to start your registration process.

Examples of official winning notices: Winning Notification Approved Green Card Actual Green Card

Your new life in America starts here... American Green Card Lottery program benefits: 50,000 people and their families will live and work in the U.S.A. Official U.S. Government program, Congress approved. Your Chance to Live and Work in the U.S.A. Easy Online Registration and Assistance in every step. Double Chances for Married People to win the Green Card Lottery.

Annual Green Card Lottery of the United States USAFIS organization invites you to participate in the USA Green Card Lottery program where you may win the green card lottery and receive a green card to legally live and work in the United States. If you are not an American citizen, you may submit your green card lottery application to join the program and take advantage of the opportunity that has been offered to you by a program of the American government, through a law that has been passed by Congress - the "Diversity Green Card Lottery" program. Click here to get your Green Card Application today.

FAQ about the USA GREEN CARD LOTTERY

Can everyone participate in the USA Green Card Lottery? No. In order to participate in Green Card USA Lottery you must be a native of a country that appears on the list of qualifying countries and must meet the minimum requirements concerning education/occupational training or employment status. Why natives of certain countries can’t qualify for Green Card USA Lottery Program? Every year the US State Department issues a list of countries that are non-eligible for the Green Card USA program. Non-eligible countries are defined as those from which the United States has received more than 50,000 immigrants during the past five years. Every year the list changes. You can check your eligibility for free on this site. What can I do if I was born in a country that does not appear on the list of countries qualifying for USA Green Card Lottery? In such a case, you can participate by presenting a country of a different citizenship than the one you were born in. This is possible if your spouse or both of your parents were born in a country that appears on the list of qualifying countries. Can a husband and wife file Green Card USA application separately? Absolutely. It’s enough for one to meet the requirements, to submit two separate applications. If one of the two will be drawn in the lottery, the other spouse will be eligible for green card USA What is the minimum age to participate in the US Green Card Lottery Program? There is no minimum age, but there is the requirement to complete high school or to have work experience. Thus, the program is designated for 18 year olds and up. Does the US State Department get USA Green Card Lottery Applications all the year round? No, the US State Department receives applications for the USA Green Card Lottery during a specify time period. But you do not need to worry about the submission period. Using the Usafis Organization services we will ensure your Green Card application is submitted on time. Does participation using the on-line system ensure winning or increase the chances of winning Green Card USA? No. The service and the online system is designed to assist you in preparing the application, helping people with no scanner to scan their photos, ensures that the application is submitted online to the dedicated State Department website at the submission period and more. The use of the Usafis Organization services is at your discretion. The service confirms that you meet the minimum requirements; that the information on the application is complete. The objective of the service is to reduce the number of disqualified green card applications (in a previous Green Card Lottery program, 3 million forms were disqualified out of 10 million forms that were sent, due to format and details errors). You must remember that only online submissions will be made possible in a dedicated State Department website - no offline forms and/or applications are required.

Green Card Lottery

Live and Work in the U.S.A.
Usafis Green Card Lottery Application Service

What is the U.S. Green Card Lottery?
Each year, the Diversity Lottery (DV) Program makes 50,000 immigrant visas available through a lottery. If you receive a visa through the Diversity Visa Lottery Program you and your family will be authorized

Forex Is About Trading..

The truth is Forex is about trading. It is not something that you can sell. Now lots of people claims to have a good Forex system and selling it over the internet. Where is the logic in that.

Forex Trading - Moving Average

Moving average is one of the most popular and easy to use tools available for doing technical analysis. It means the average price of a currency over a specified time period (the most common being 20, 30, 50, 100 and 200 days), used in order to spot pricing trends by flattening out large fluctuations. Moving average data is used to create charts that show whether a currency’s price is trending up or down. They can be used to track daily, weekly, or monthly patterns. Each new day's (or week's or month's) numbers are added to the average and the oldest numbers are dropped, thus, the average "moves" over time. In general, the shorter the time frame used, the more volatile the prices will appear, so, for example, 20 day moving average lines tend to move up and down more than 200 day moving average lines. There are four different types of moving averages: Simple (also referred to as Arithmetic), Exponential, Smoothed and Linear Weighted. Moving averages may be calculated for any sequential data set, including opening and closing prices, highest and lowest prices, trading volume or any other indicators. It is often the case when double moving averages are used.


The only thing where moving averages of different types diverge considerably from each other is when weight coefficients, which are assigned to the latest data, are different. In case we are talking of simple moving average, all prices of the time period in question are equal in value. Exponential and Linear Weighted Moving Averages attach more value to the latest prices. The most common way to interpreting the price moving average is to compare its dynamics to the price action. When the instrument price rises above its moving average, a buy signal appears, if the price falls below its moving average, what we have is a sell signal. This trading system, which is based on the moving average, is not designed to provide entrance into the market right in its lowest point, and its exit right on the peak. It allows acting according to the following trend: to buy soon after the prices reach the bottom, and to sell soon after the prices have reached their peak. Moving averages may also be applied to indicators. That is where the interpretation of indicator moving averages is similar to the interpretation of price moving averages: if the indicator rises above its moving average, that means that the ascending indicator movement is likely to continue: if the indicator falls below its moving average, this means that it is likely to continue going downward.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

Simple Moving Average is the simplest type of moving averages. Basically, SMA is calculated by adding the last number in the period from the closing price, and then dividing that number with a period. Let me explain in example, if you select SMA 5 on a 1 hour graph, add the closing prices for the last 5 hours, and then divide that number by 5. If you select SMA 5 on a 30 minute graph, you will add the closing prices for the past 150 minutes (30*5), and then divide that number by 5. In the same way you can calculate SMA for any time period.

Most of the trading platforms will make all these calculations for you. The reason why I am bothering you with this component of technical analysis is because it is extremely important to understand how to calculate the moving average. If you understand how every moving average is calculated, you can make your own decision, which type is the best for you.

Like any other indicator, SMA works with a delay. Because you observe the average price, you are actually looking at the "forecast" of future prices, not the concrete future. Here's an example of how moving averages reduce the price activity:



On the previous chart you can see 3 different SMA. As you can see, the bigger period SMA you take, the more it stays behind the more prices. You probably noticed that the 62 SMA is much further away from current prices then 30 and 5 SMA. This is because with 62 SMA you are adding closing prices from the last 62 periods and dividing it with 62. The higher the number of periods that you are using, the slower is reaction to the movement of prices. SMA on this graph shows the overall sentiment in the market in a given period. Instead of just looking at the current price on the market, moving averages provide a broader view, and give us the general prediction of prices in the future.

SMA = SUM (CLOSE, N)/N ; Where:
N = number of calculation periods

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Although SMA is an excellent tool, one major problem is associated with it: SMA is very sensitive to sudden jumps (spikes). By looking at the next example you will better understand what I mean:
Suppose that we draw a 5 SMA on the daily chart of EUR / USD and the closing prices for the last 5 days are as follows: 1st day - 1.2345, 2nd day - 1.2350, 3rd day - 1.2360, 4th day - 1.2365, 5th day - 1.2370. SMA would be calculated as: (1.2345+1.2350+1.2360+1.2365+1.2370)/5 = 1.2358. But what if the 2nd day price was 1.2300? SMA result would be much lower and you get the impression that the price is going down, when in reality, 2nd day may perhaps have been only one remote event (for example, reduction of the interest rate).

What I am trying to indicate is that the SMA may sometimes be too simple. If there was only a way to filter the jumps so that we do not get the wrong picture and make the most out of moving averages. It exists and is called the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

EMA is a type of moving average that is similar to Simple Moving Average, except that more weight is given to the latest data. The Exponential Moving Average is also known as "Exponentially Weighted Moving Average". This type of moving average reacts faster to recent price changes than a Simple Moving Average. In our example above, EMA would put more weight on the 3rd-5th day, which means that jump on the 2nd would have a lesser value and would not influence so much on the moving average. It would put more emphasis on what traders are doing right now. While trading, it is more important to see what merchants are doing right now, not what they were doing last week or last month.



EMA = (CLOSE(i)*P)+(EMA(i-1)*(100-P)) ; Where:
CLOSE(i) = the price of the current period closure
EMA(i-1) = Exponentially Moving Average of the previous period closure
P = the percentage of using the price value

Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA)

A Smoothed Moving Average is sort of a cross between a Simple Moving Average and an Exponential Moving Average, only with a longer period applied. The Smoothed Moving Average gives the recent prices an equal weighting to the historic ones. The calculation does not refer to a fixed period, but rather takes all available data series into account. This is achieved by subtracting yesterday’s Smoothed Moving Average from today’s price. Adding this result to yesterday’s Smoothed Moving Average, results in today’s moving average.

In a Simple Moving Average, the price data have an equal weight in the computation of the average. Also, in a Simple Moving Average, the oldest price data are removed from the moving average as a new price is added to the computation. The Smoothed Moving Average uses a longer period to determine the average, assigning a weight to the price data as the average is calculated. Thus, the oldest price data points in the Smoothed Moving Average are never removed, but they have only a minimal impact on the moving average, which is similar to how an Exponential Moving Average places more weight on the more recent data.

The first value of this smoothed moving average is calculated as the simple moving average (SMA):
SUM1 = SUM(CLOSE, N)
SMMA1 = SUM1/N

The second and succeeding moving averages are calculated according to this formula:
SMMA(i) = (SUM1-SMMA1+CLOSE(i))/N ; Where:
SUM1 = the total sum of closing prices for N periods
SMMA1 = the smoothed moving average of the first bar
SMMA(i) = the smoothed moving average of the current bar (except for the first one)
CLOSE(i) = the current closing price
N = the smoothing period



SMA versus EMA

If you want a moving average which will match the movement of prices quite quickly, then the EMA with a short period (eg. 3, 5, 8) is the best choice for you. This may help to ''hunt down'' the trend in the early stage, which will result in higher profits. Specifically, the earlier you have caught the trend, the more you can ''ride'' through it, and you can make more money. The pitfall is that while using this type of moving average you can get a false signal which you won’t recognize and lose your investment. Since the moving average quickly matches the price, you can even think that a new trend is forming, but in fact it is just an abrupt jump, which returns to the starting position (spike).

With SMA the situation is completely opposite. If you want the moving average to respond more precisely and slowly to the price changes, then the longer period SMA is the best choice for you. Although slow responding to the price changes will save you from many possible pitfalls, the smaller SMA may also result in too much delay and missing of a good trade.



Uses for Moving Averages

There are many uses for moving averages, but three basic uses stand out:
1. Trend identification/confirmation
2. Support and Resistance level identification/confirmation
3. Trading Systems

Which is better?

Which moving average you use will depend on your trading and investing style and preferences. The Simple Moving Average obviously has a lag, but the Exponential Moving Average may be prone to quicker breaks. Some traders prefer to use Exponential Moving Averages for shorter time periods to capture changes quicker, while others prefer Simple Moving Averages over long time periods to identify long-term trend changes. In addition, much will depend on the individual security in question. Moving average type and length of time will depend greatly on the individual security and how it has reacted in the past.

The initial thought for some is that greater sensitivity and quicker signals are bound to be beneficial. This is not always true and brings up a great dilemma for the technical analyst: the tradeoff between sensitivity and reliability. The more sensitive an indicator is, the more signals that will be given. These signals may prove timely, but with increased sensitivity comes an increase in false signals. The less sensitive an indicator is, the fewer signals that will be given. However, less sensitivity leads to fewer and more reliable signals. Sometimes these signals can be late as well.

For moving averages, the same dilemma applies. Shorter moving averages will be more sensitive and generate more signals. The EMA, which is generally more sensitive than the SMA, will also be likely to generate more signals. However, there will also be an increase in the number of false signals and whipsaws. Longer moving averages will move slower and generate fewer signals. These signals will likely prove more reliable, but they also may come late. Each investor or trader should experiment with different moving average lengths and types to examine the trade-off between sensitivity and signal reliability.

Trend-Following Indicator

Moving averages smooth out a data series and make it easier to identify the direction of the trend. Because past price data is used to form moving averages, they are considered lagging, or trend following, indicators. Moving averages will not predict a change in trend, but rather follow behind the current trend. Therefore, they are best suited for trend identification and trend following purposes, not for prediction.

When to Use

Because moving averages follow the trend, they work best when a currency is trending and are ineffective when a currency moves in a trading range. With this in mind, investors and traders should first identify currencies that display some trending characteristics before attempting to analyze with moving averages. This process does not have to be a scientific examination. Usually, a simple visual assessment of the price chart can determine if a security exhibits characteristics of trend.

In its simplest form, a currency’s price can be doing only one of three things: trending up, trending down or trading in a range. An uptrend is established when a currency forms a series of higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is established when a currency forms a series of lower lows and lower highs. A trading range is established if a currency cannot establish an uptrend or downtrend. If a security is in a trading range, an uptrend is started when the upper boundary of the range is broken and a downtrend begins when the lower boundary is broken.

Once a currency has been deemed to have enough characteristics of trend, the next task will be to select the number of moving average periods and type of moving average. The number of periods used in a moving average will vary according to the currency's volatility, trendiness and personal preferences. The more volatility there is, the more smoothing that will be required and hence the longer the moving average. There is no one set length, but some of the more popular lengths include 21, 50, 89, 150 and 200 days as well as 10, 30 and 40 weeks. Short-term traders may look for evidence of 2-3 week trends with a 21-day moving average, while longer-term investors may look for evidence of 3-4 month trends with a 40-week moving average. Trial and error is usually the best means for finding the best length. If there are too many breaks, lengthen the moving average to decrease its sensitivity. If the moving average is slow to react, shorten the moving average to increase its sensitivity. In addition, you may want to try using both Simple and Exponential Moving Averages. Exponential Moving Averages are usually best for short-term situations that require a responsive moving average. Simple Moving Averages work well for longer-term situations that do not require a lot of sensitivity.

Conclusions

Moving averages can be effective tools to identify and confirm trend, identify support and resistance levels, and develop trading systems. However, traders and investors should learn to identify currencies that are suitable for analysis with moving averages and how this analysis should be applied. Usually, an assessment can be made with a visual examination of the price chart, but sometimes it will require a more detailed approach.

The advantages of using moving averages need to be weighed against the disadvantages. Moving averages are trend following, or lagging, indicators that will always be a step behind. This is not necessarily a bad thing though. After all, the trend is your friend and it is best to trade in the direction of the trend. Moving averages will help ensure that a trader is in line with the current trend. However, markets, currencies spend a great deal of time in trading ranges, which render moving averages ineffective. Once in a trend, moving averages will keep you in, but also give late signals. Don't expect to get out at the top and in at the bottom using moving averages. As with most tools of technical analysis, moving averages should not be used on their own, but in conjunction with other tools that complement them. Using moving averages to confirm other indicators and analysis can greatly enhance technical analysis

forex Trading Methods - Scalping

What is Forex Scalping?

Forex scalping is the art of using high leverage and a large number of short term trades to steadily increase an account. Usually, only 1 to 5 pips are targeted for each trade. This type of trading appeals greatly to day traders and those looking to minimize the risk involved in trading currencies. Next to money management, “risk control” is the single most important trait to a surviving (and thriving) currency trader. The small amount of time that is spent in the market limits much of the risk in exposure in comparison to a longer term system. Also, the freedom involved in a speedy Forex scalping system in such a liquid market is a “magnet” that drives many traders from other markets to try their hand in currency. A disciplined and steady scalper could seamlessly double or triple an account, and spend only a fraction of the time in the market as a common day trader.

Forex Scalping - The Problem

Though Forex scalping may seem like a preverbal “holy grail” at first glance, there are still many unseen hurdles that surround the controversial method of trading. If you do wish to add scalping to your trading toolbox, it is extremely important to pick a broker who can support a scalpers’ system. You will quickly find that many brokers do not allow scalp trading, as the method of quickly entering and exiting trades may actually cause the broker to lose money at the dealing desk. Forex scalping also does not give the broker a means to trade against their clients which is a way of money making for them. Out of the hundreds of online Forex brokers, only a handful support scalping. It is a very thin line between scalping and short term trading. Generally if you hold trades for a minute or less, you may have problems with brokers. They could warn you and then if you continue shut down your account. However, if you trade in minutes or more, most likely you will not have problems with dealing desk brokers. Non dealing desk (ECN) brokers allow scalping where you can hold a position for seconds however the minimum to open an account is higher ($2,000 and above).

Forex Scalping Strategy

Effective Forex scalping strategies take advantage of extremely slight price fluctuations (sometimes only 1-3 pips) many times in order to steadily build an account. Because of the smaller number of pips gained per trade, larger than normal leverages play a key role in a successful Forex scalping strategy. By leveraging much more than a standard day trader in a liquid environment, a very skilled scalp trader is able to make just as much money as the day trader in a shorter period of time. However, this is an obvious double-edged sword. The market can just as easily move against you on a high leverage, which could produce substantial blows to your account.

Also, it is important to take into consideration the physical and mental speed of a trader who will only stay in the market for seconds to minutes. Executing a scalping strategy by hand can be extremely difficult considering the quick amount of time you must be in and out of the market for your strategy to be affective. Many successful Forex scalping strategies are built to be automated; the rules to the system are coded into a trading platform to automatically perform scalp trades around the clock. Though it is completely possible to trade a Forex scalping strategy manually, the majority of today’s traders would agree that automating the process based on a set of rules would be the best way to ensure speed and reliability. When choosing a platform to automate your scalp strategy, it is extremely important to stick with those platforms that allow the execution of your system on every tick (such as MetaTrader 4). This ensures that your entrances and exits will be on a per-tick basis, and will give you a much higher probable rate of success than those platforms who will execute your code more periodically.

To understand the full challenge of scalping as a trading style, consider this: hard work and small gains accumulated over a decent period of time could easily be wiped out with one large loss. Finding a balance between profit levels and size of acceptable losses presents the most difficult challenge to scalper’s strategy.
Forex scalping can be a good method of growing a managed Forex account quickly, but should not be looked at as the “holy grail” of trading. Most brokers do not support scalping, and a consistently profitable Forex scalping strategy can be very difficult to engineer. However, if much time and effort is spent in system optimization and setting up a good relationship with a scalp supporting broker, the benefits could be well worth the time spent.

Forex Trading Methods - Day Trading

What is Day Trading?

Day trading refers to the practice of buying and selling financial instruments within the same trading day such that all positions are usually closed before the market close of the trading day. This can occur in any marketplace but is most common in the foreign exchange market and stock market. Many day traders are bank or investment firm employees working as specialists in equity investment and fund management. However, with the advent of electronic trading and margin trading, day trading has become increasingly popular among casual, at home traders. Day traders utilize high amounts of leverage and short-term trading strategies to capitalize on small price movements in highly liquid stocks or currencies. They serve two critical functions in the marketplace - keeping the markets running efficiently via arbitrage and providing much of the markets' liquidity.

Trade Frequency

Although collectively called day trading, there are many styles within day trading. A day trader is actively searching for potential trading setups (that is, any stock or other financial instruments that, in the judgment of the day trader, is in a tension state, ready to accelerate in price in either direction, that when traded well has a potential for a substantial profit). The number of trades you can make per day are almost unlimited, as are the profits and losses.

Some day traders focus on very short-term trading within the trading day, in which a trade may last just a few minutes. Day traders may buy and sell many times in a trading day and may receive trading fee discounts from their broker for this trading volume.

Some day traders focus only on price momentum, others on technical patterns, and still others on an unlimited number of strategies they feel can be profitable. Some day traders exit positions before the market closes to avoid any and all unmanageable risks - negative price gaps (differences between the previous day's close and the next day's open bull price) at the open - overnight price movements against the position held. Other traders believe they should let the profits run, so it is acceptable to stay with a position after the market closes.

Day traders sometimes borrow money to trade. This is called margin trading. Since margin interests are typically only charged on overnight balances, the trader pays no fees for the margin benefit, although they still run the risk of a Margin call.

Profit and Risks

Because of the nature of financial leverage and the rapid returns that are possible, day trading can be either extremely profitable or extremely unprofitable, and high-risk profile traders can generate either huge percentage returns or huge percentage losses. Some day traders manage to earn millions per year solely by day trading.

Because of the high profits (and losses) that day trading makes possible, these traders are sometimes portrayed as "bandits" or "gamblers" by other investors. Some individuals, however, make a consistent living from day trading.
Nevertheless day trading can be very risky, especially if any of the following is present while trading:

- trading a loser's game/system rather than a game that's at least winnable,
- trading with poor discipline (ignoring your own strategy, tactics, rules),
- inadequate risk capital with the accompanying stress of having to "survive",
- incompetent money management (i.e. executing trades poorly).

The common use of buying on margin (using borrowed funds) amplifies gains and losses, such that substantial losses or gains can occur in a very short period of time. In addition, brokers usually allow bigger margins for day traders. Where overnight margins required to hold a stock position are normally 50% of the stock's value, many brokers allow pattern day trader accounts to use levels as low as 25% for intraday purchases. This means a day trader with the legal minimum $25,000 in his or her account can buy $100,000 worth of stock during the day, as long as half of those positions are exited before the market close. Because of the high risk of margin use, and of other day trading practices, a day trader will often have to exit a losing position very quickly, in order to prevent a greater, unacceptable loss, or even a disastrous loss, much larger than his or her original investment, or even larger than his or her total assets.

The Controversy

The profit potential of day trading is perhaps one of the most debated (and misunderstood) topics on Wall Street. Countless internet scams have capitalized on this confusion by promising enormous returns in a short period. Meanwhile, the media continues to promote this type of trading as a get-rich-quick scheme that always works. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. There are those who engage in this type of trading without sufficient knowledge (or some even admittedly for a gambler's high). However, there are day traders who are able to make a successful living. Many professional money managers and financial advisors shy away from day trading, arguing that in most cases the reward does not justify the risk. They often cite that no day trader is world renown, whereas icons like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch are a testament to the success that can be attained by more traditional forms of investing. Conversely, those who do day trade insist there is profit to be made. They say the success rate is inherently lower as a result of the higher complexity and necessary risk of day trading, combined with all the related scams. Overall, the street remains divided on the issue. At the very least they agree that day trading is not for everyone and involves significant risks. Moreover, it demands an in-depth understanding of how the markets work and various strategies for profiting in the short term.

Day Trading For A Living

There are two primary divisions of professional day traders: those who work alone and/or those who work for a larger institution. Most day traders who trade for a living work for a large institution. The fact is these people have access to things individual traders could only dream of: a direct line to a dealing desk, large amounts of capital and leverage, expensive analytical software and much more. These traders are typically the ones looking for easy profits that can be made from arbitrage opportunities and news events. The resources to which they have access allow them to capitalize on these less risky day trades before individual traders can react. Individual traders often manage other people's money or simply trade with their own. Few of them have access to a dealing desk; however, they often have strong ties to a brokerage (due to the large amounts of commission spending) and access to other resources. However, the limited scope of these resources prevents them from competing directly with institutional day traders, instead, they are forced to take more risks. Individual traders typically day trade using technical analysis and swing trades, combined with some leverage, to generate adequate profits on such small price movements in highly liquid stocks.

Day trading demands access to some of the most complex financial services and instruments in the marketplace. Day traders require:

1. Access to the Trading Desk

This is usually reserved for traders working for larger institutions or those who manage large amounts of money. The dealing desk provides these traders with instantaneous order executions, which can become important, especially when sharp price movements occur. For example, when an acquisition is announced, day traders looking at merger arbitrage can get their orders in before the rest of the market, taking advantage of the price differential.

2. Multiple News Sources

In the move "Wall Street" Gordon Gekko says that 'information is the most important commodity when trading’. News provides the majority of opportunities day traders capitalize on, so it is imperative to be the first to know when something big happens. The typical trading room contains access to the Dow Jones Newswire, televisions showing CNBC and other news agencies, as well as software that constantly analyzes various other news sources for important stories.

3. Analytical Software

Trading software is an expensive necessity for most day traders. Those who rely on technical indicators or swing trades rely more on software than news.
Combined these tools provide traders with an edge over the rest of the marketplace. It is easy to see why, without them, so many inexperienced traders lose money.

Techniques

The following are several basic strategies by which day traders attempt to make profits. Besides these, some day traders also use contrarian (reverse) strategies (more commonly seen in algorithmic trading) to trade specifically against irrational behavior from day traders using these approaches.

Some of these approaches require shorting stocks instead of buying them normally: the trader borrows stock from his broker and sells the borrowed stock, hoping that the price will fall and he will be able to purchase the shares at a lower price. There are several technical problems with short sales - the broker may not have shares to lend in a specific issue, some short sales can only be made if the stock price or bid has just risen (known as an "uptick"), and the broker can call for the return of its shares at any time. Some of these restrictions (in particular the uptick rule) don't apply to trades of stocks that are actually shares of an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

1. Trend Following

Trend following, a strategy used in all trading time-frames, assumes that financial instruments which have been rising steadily will continue to rise, and vice versa with falling. The trend follower buys an instrument which has been risin,g or short-sells a falling one, in the expectation that the trend will continue.

2. Contrarian Investing

Contrarian investing is a market timing strategy used in all trading time-frames. It assumes that financial instruments which have been rising steadily will reverse and start to fall, and vice versa with falling. The contrarian trader buys an instrument which has been falling, or short-sells a rising one, in the expectation that the trend will change.

3. Range Trading

Range trading is a trading style in which stocks are watched that have either been rising off a support price or falling off a resistance price. That is, every time the stock hits a high, it falls back to the low, and vice versa. Such a stock is said to be "trading in a range", which is the opposite of trending. The range trader therefore buys the stock at or near the low price, and sells (and possibly short sells) at the high. A related approach to range trading is looking for moves outside of an established range, called a breakout (price moves up) or a breakdown (price moves down), and assume that once the range has been broken prices will continue in that direction for some time.

4. Scalping

Scalping was originally referred to as spread trading. Scalping is a trading style where small price gaps created by the bid-ask spread are exploited. It normally involves establishing and liquidating a position quickly, usually within minutes or even seconds. Scalping highly liquid instruments for off the floor day traders involves taking quick profits while minimizing risk (loss exposure). It applies technical analysis concepts such as over/under-bought, support and resistance zones as well as trend line, trading channel to enter the market at key points and take quick profits from small moves. The basic idea of scalping is to exploit the inefficiency of the market when volatility increases and the trading range expands.

5. Rebate Trading

Rebate Trading is an equity trading style that uses ECN rebates as a primary source of profit and revenue, considering the payment structure of ECN paying per share. Traders maximize their returns by trading low priced, high volume stocks. This enables them to trade more shares and have more liquidity with a set amount of capital.

6. News Playing

News playing is primarily the realm of the day trader. The basic strategy is to buy a stock which has just announced good news, or short sell on bad news. Such events provide enormous volatility in a stock and therefore the greatest chance for quick profits (or losses). Determining whether news is "good" or "bad" must be determined by the price action of the stock, because the market reaction may not match the tone of the news itself. The most common cause for this is when rumors or estimates of the event (like those issued by market and industry analysts) were already circulated before the official release, and prices have already moved in anticipation---the news is already priced in the stock.

Conclusion

Although day trading has become somewhat of a controversial phenomenon, its prevalence is undeniable. Day traders, both institutional and individual, play an important role in the marketplace by keeping the markets efficient and liquid. Some argue that individuals should stay away from day trading, while others argue that it is a viable means to profit. And although it is becoming increasingly popular among inexperienced traders, it should be left primarily to those with the skills and resources needed to succeed.

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