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What is Credit Card?

A credit card is part of a system of payments named after the small plastic card issued to users of the system. It is a card entitling its holder to buy goods and services based on the holders promise to pay for these goods and services.[1]. The issuer of the card grants a line of credit to the consumer (or the user) from which the user can borrow money for payment to a merchant or as a cash advance to the user. A credit card is different from a charge card, where a charge card requires the balance to be paid in full each month. In contrast, credit cards allow the consumers to 'revolve' their balance, at the cost of having interest charged. Most credit cards are issued by local banks or credit unions, and are the same shape and size as specified by the ISO 7810 standard.

Archive for the 'US Dollar' Category

Fed to Hold Rates for the Near Term

Aug. 12th 2009

Over the last week, the markets have been abuzz with chatter about how the US recession will soon come to and end, followed by a quick and healthy recovery. According to investor logic, the result would be a rise in inflation and interest rates. This optimism was partially deflated today, as the Federal Reserve bank conducted its annual monetary policy meeting.

Excluding a brief uptick in June (see chart below courtesy of the Cleveland Fed), investors had long come to expect that the Fed would leave its benchmark Federal Funds rate unchanged, at 0-.25%. At the same time, there was a strong belief that the Fed would begin to hike rates at the end of 2009, and comment accordingly in the press release that accompanied its monetary policy decision. Barron’s predicted yesterday: “The statement will acknowledge some improvement in the U.S. economy, though it will imply that this nascent growth reflected in recent gross domestic product reports is fragile and will be monitored closely. This will leave open the specter that interest rates could be increased at some point in the future.”

Sure enough, the Fed left rates unchanged, and its press release conveyed a restrained sense of hope that the worst of the recession is now behind us: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks…Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate…a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.” The Fed also announced that its Treasury buying activities would soon come to an end, although it may continue to buy mortgage securities as part of its quantitative easing program.

Perhaps the tone of the press release was slightly less positive than investors would have liked, since interest rate futures dived immediately on the news. Especially compared to last week, investors are now assuming that it will be a while before the Fed actually hike rates: “At Wednesday’s settlement price of 99.655, the February fed-funds futures contract priced in about a 38% chance for a 0.5% funds rate after the late-January meeting. That’s down sharply from about a 60% chance at Tuesday’s settlement, about a 76% chance at Monday’s settlement, and about a 96% chance at last Friday’s settlement.” Analysis of options trading activity reveals that the large brokerage houses believe similarly.

As for the Dollar, it now seems possible that last week’s rally was premature. If the Fed isn’t prepared to hike rates anytime soon, then the current interest rate differentials between the US and the rest of the world will remain intact. More importantly, the Dollar will remain a viable funding currency for carry trades, and the shift of funds into higher-yielding alternatives will probably continue for the time being.

Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Central Banks, US Dollar | No Comments »

Dollar Reverses Course

Aug. 10th 2009

A recent WSJ headline reads, Good Economic News Threatens the Dollar, and summarizes the Dollar’s trading pattern as follows: “Demand for the U.S. currency continues to erode amid a tide of more encouraging economic data and corporate earnings that have fed a thirst for riskier assets such as stocks, commodities, and growth-sensitive currencies.”

Less than two weeks after that article was published, the Dollar rose by a healthy 2% against the Euro in only one trading session, as US labor market conditions improved slightly: “The U.S. unemployment rate fell in July for the first time in 15 months as employers cut far fewer jobs than expected, giving the clearest indication yet that the economy was turning around from a deep recession.” While technically another 250,000 jobs were lost and economists forecast that the employment rate will rise past 10% before peaking, investor sentiment is still at a high.

Archive for the 'Australian Dollar' Category

Canadian Dollar Slated to Outperform Other Commodity Currencies

Jul. 29th 2009

In the same vein as Monday’s and Tuesday’s posts (covering the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar, respectively), I’d like to use today’s post to look at another commodity currency - the Canadian Dollar. The Loonie, it turns out, has also benefited from the a recovery in risk appetite and concomitant boom in commodity prices; it has appreciated by 7% against the USD in the last month alone, en route to a ten-month high. “All in all, with almost everything going its way these days (besides the crummy weather and the impact on tourism), a return trip to parity - last visited nearly one year ago - doesn’t seem far fetched,” chimes one optimistic analyst.

Like Australia and New Zealand, Canada’s economic fate is tied closely to commodity prices. Simply, as oil and other natural resources have inched closer to last year’s record highs, the Loonie has rebounded proportionately. “Raw materials account for more than 50 percent of Canada’s export revenue. Crude is the nation’s largest export.” Of course, this relationship works both ways. Any indication that the global economic recovery is stalling, and commodities prices would likely tumble, bringing commodity currencies down likewise.

Unlike the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar, the Loonie has never really held much appeal as a carry trade currency. Even at their peak, Canadian interest rates were mediocre, from the standpoint of yield. The current rate is a measly .25%, compared to 2.5% in New Zealand and 3% in Australia. Moreover, while Australia may begin tightening as soon as the fall, “The Bank of Canada committed to keep its key policy rate at the lowest possible level until the spring of 2010,” after voting to hold rates at yesterday’s rate setting meeting. This interest differential could explain why the Aussie has outpaced the Loonie of late.

Another key difference - and potential explanation for the currencies’ recent divergence - is that Australia is considered part of the Asian economic zone, while Canada’s economic fortunes are closely aligned with those of its main trading partner, the US. China, alone, is helping to lift Australia out of recession. The US, meanwhile, is still struggling to find its feet. Hence, it is projected that Canadian GDP will contract by 2.3% in 2009, while Australian GDP may fall by a modest .5%. “When things look bad, you are more likely to sell Canada than the Australian dollar because its economy is moderated by Asian growth,” explains one analyst.

Going forward, this regional differentiation could actually work to the advantage of Canada, which is forecast to grow by an impressive 3% in 2010, compared to 1% growth in Australia. Accordingly, one analyst advises that “Investors should sell Australia’s dollar against Canada’s as a ‘relative commodity play’ because an attempt by China to reign in bank lending on concern it may be creating asset-price bubbles could slow Asian growth…’The Canadian dollar should outperform because it is much more closely linked to a recovery in the U.S.’ “

Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar | 2 Comments »

Reserve Bank of Australia Could be the First to Hike Rates

Jul. 28th 2009

Based on the chart below, which plots the Australian Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar over the last two years, one might be tempted to conclude that the two currencies are identical for all intents and purposes. Rather than suffer the inconvenience of separately analyzing the Australian Dollar, why not just read yesterday’s post on the New Zealand Dollar, and leave it at that?

But this chart belies the fact that while the two currencies, have risen and fallen (in near lockstep) in sync with the ebb and flow of risk aversion, this could soon change. While the near-term prospects for the New Zealand economy are dubious, sentiment towards the Australian economy is more consistently optimistic. “Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the nation’s economic downturn may not be ‘one of the more serious’ of the post-World War II era.” In addition, “Stevens said the nation’s economy may rebound faster than the central bank had predicted six months ago on improving confidence among consumers and businesses alike.” The latest projections are for a fall in .5% contraction in GDP in 2009 followed by a 1% rise in 2010.

Meanwhile, government spending is surging: “The Australian government forecast its largest budget deficit on record of A$57.6 billion for fiscal year 2009-10, or 4.9% of GDP.” Combined with the steady recovery in commodity prices and the resumption of residential construction, this could soon trickle down through the Australian economy in the form of inflation. It’s no wonder, then, that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could begin tightening interest rates as early as December, in order to mitigate against the possibility of inflation in 2011 and 2012.

In fact, Governor Glen Stevens has been raising eyebrows with his unequivocal comments about raising rates. “I’ve never seen written down … I’ve never heard in discussion in the institution, some rule of thumb that says we wait until unemployment’s peaked before we lift the cash rate…I think it depends what else is happening, and also depends how low you went. We eased very aggressively,” he said recently. As a result, traders are betting that rates will be 1.13% higher one year from now than they are today.

This development should be of especial interest to forex traders. Australian interest rates are already the highest in the industrialized world. When you consider “the market’s expectations that the RBA is likely to be the G-10 central bank which is likely to hike first,” it goes a long way towards explaining the 18% rise in the Aussie that has taken place in 2009 alone. Compare a hypothetical 4% RBA benchmark rate to the .1% in Japan and ~0% in the US, and carry traders will start to salivate.

Ring Fences, Rustlers and a global bank insolvency

In this week which has seen so much speculation on the fate of Lehman Brothers, it seems only sensible to review how an international insolvency of a major bank works and what it might mean for international creditors. The insolvency treatment of international banks has remained one of the stubbornly difficult areas of law to harmonise and huge uncertainty and complexity remains. For excellent background, see Cross-border bank insolvency by Rosa Maria Lastra of Queen Mary, University of London.Although markets are global, and Lehman Brothers operations span the globe, all insolvency is local. The basic premise is that each jurisdiction buries its own dead and keeps whatever treasure or garbage it finds with the corpse. Local creditors get to recover their claims out of the locally available assets. If, and only if, there are any assets left over will international creditors be invited to make a claim for the rest. Europe has managed to harmonise cross-border insolvency for banks under directives and local law to embody principles of universality and unity within the EU, but that only works equitably if enough assets are in the EU when the bank fails, and local insolvency law still applies in all its divergent complexity.Claims against a bank are deemed located wherever the contract creating the claim is undertaken. If it is under US law then the claimant must look to the liquidator in the United States and assets under his control for recovery. If the claim is in Hong Kong, then the claimant looks to the Hong Kong receiver and assets.The key to having a happy insolvency, if such a thing exists, lies in ensuring that when a globalised bank goes bust, all the best assets are inside your borders and subject to seizure by your liquidators on behalf of your creditors. Everyone else outside your borders is on their own. As the US dollar is the reserve currency of banking and US Treasuries, Agencies and other assets are the highest preferred asset class, the US is almost always in a good position in an international bank failure.The principle of using local assets for local recovery is known as the “ring fence” – the idea being that insolvency drops an invisible “ring fence” around any valuable assets at the borders to meet claims arising within the borders. No country is more assiduous in weaving the ring fence than the United States of America. It is a very successful strategy for US creditors. US creditors of failed international banks tend to recover disproportionately relative to creditors anywhere else. The ring fence contains all these choicest assets for US creditors, and all the international creditors are forced to pick among the dross of foreign assets to eke out a recovery, only receiving any residual US assets remaining after US creditors get 100 percent recovery.Lehman has been deeply troubled and subject to speculation since the early spring. That was just about the time that we started to see a marked sell off in foreign markets where Lehman has long been a major player. Recently, along with intensification of that sell off, we have seen a strengthening of the US dollar and US asset markets.If one were cynical, and one believed that Lehman was going to be allowed to fail pour encouragement les autres one might wonder if Lehman was quietly bidden – or even explicitly ordered – to sell off its foreign holdings and repatriate the proceeds to asset classes within the US ring fence. This would ensure that US creditors of Lehman received a satisfactory recovery at the expense of foreign creditors. It would also contribute to a nice pre-election illusion of a “flight to quality” as US dollar and assets strengthened on the direction of flow.If one were really cynical, one might even think that a wily bank supervisor might arrange to ensure 100 percent recovery for its creditors with a bit of creative misappropriation thrown in the mix. Broker dealers normally hold securities and other assets in nominee name on behalf of their investor clients. Under modern market regulation, these nominee assets are supposed to be held separately from a firm’s own assets so that they can be protected in an insolvency and restored to the clients with minimal loss and inconvenience. Liberalisations and financial innovations have undermined the segregation principle by promoting much more intensive use of client assets for leverage (prime brokerage and margin lending) and alternative income streams (securities lending). As a result, it is often very difficult to discern in a failed broker who has the better claim to assets which were held to a client account but reused for finance and/or trading purposes. The main source of evidence is the books of the failed broker.On the wholesale side, margin and collateralisation in connection with derivatives and securities finance arrangements mean that creditors under these arrangements should have good delivery and secure legal claims to assets provided under market standard agreements. As a result, preferred wholesale creditors could have been streamed the choicest assets under arrangements that will look above suspicion on review as being consistent with market best practice.If Lehman were to go into insolvency, I will be interested to discover whether US creditors achieve a much higher proportion of recovery than their global peers in other locations where Lehman did business. If so, it will likely be because of the US ring fence and the months of repatriation of assets and funds back into the confines of the ring fence before the failure was finally orchestrated. It will also be because the choicest assets were preferentially delivered to preferred US creditors under market standard margin and collateral arrangements.Unfortunately, the pace of an international insolvency means that any retrospective evaluation will be so far down the road that I will likely be almost alone in looking backwards to see what the final distribution effects are and what they mean for equitable principles of international banking practice.

Previous years entries statistics

The table below displays the total entries received by the State Dep. during the previous years of the Green Card lottery program. For paper based programs, the high number of "Disqualified Forms" is due to missing information, wrong format, wrong addressing and other misinterpretation of the requirements. For electronic based program, the high number of "Eliminated" entries is due to exact duplicates and elimination through facial recognition technology.

Program	Period	Qualified	Eliminated
DV-2009	Oct 4, 2007 - Dec 3, 2007	9.1 million	--
DV-2008	Oct 4, 2006 - Dec 3, 2006	6.4 million	--
DV-2007	Oct 5, 2005 - Dec 4, 2005	5.5 Million	82,447
DV-2006	Nov 5, 2004 - Jan 7, 2005	6.3 Million	36,555
DV-2005	Nov 1, 2003 - Dec 30, 2003	5.9 Million	--
		Entries Received	Qualified	Disqualified
DV-2004	Oct 7, 2002 - Nov 6, 2002	10.2 Million	7.3 Million	2.9 Million	28%
DV-2003	Oct 1, 2001 - Oct 31, 2001	8.7 Million	6.2 Million	2.5 Million	29%
DV-2002	Oct 2, 2000 - Nov 1, 2000	13 Million	10 Million	3 Million	23%
DV-2001	Oct 4, 1999 - Nov 3, 1999	13 Million	11 Million	2 Million	15%
DV-2000	Oct 1, 1998 - Oct 31, 1998	10.5 Million	8 Million	2.5 Million	24%
DV-99	Octo 24, 1997 - Nov 24, 1997	5.8 Million	3.4 Million	2.4 Million	41%
DV-98	Feb 3, 1997 - May 5, 1997	6 Million	4.7 Million	1.3 Million	22%

Green card Lottery Basics

The official name of the green card lottery program is the Diversity Visa Program (DV). The U.S. State
Department provides over two hundred different types of visas for people to work and live in America
legally. However, the DV program is the most unique one out there. Many of the visas the U.S Department
issues contain strict set of qualifications. With the DV program, all that is needed is some basic education requirements and a bit of good luck. Millions of people apply each year, but only 50,000 received a Green
Card through the DV program.

The intention of the program is to make America more diversified, which means a balance of different ethnicities joining into the melting pot of America. Before 1965, many of the U.S. immigration laws favored a Northern European immigration wave. However, The United States Congress decided to give this opportunity to relatives of American citizens or permanent residents, regardless of origin, and Asians, Africans, and Latin Americans began arriving in record numbers. In 1995, Congress decided the lottery should cover the whole world-except those countries thought to be overrepresented in the immigrant pool. Winners of the green
card lottery also qualify for citizenship.

The DV lottery program is headquartered in Williamsburg, Kentucky. The Kentucky Consular Center in Williamsburg registers and notifies the winners of the diversity lottery. The actual submission date for the
Green Card Lottery usually takes place between October-December. Those applicants who correctly filled
out the application are assigned a computerized generated number. Once the deadline for submission of
applications has passed, the computer then randomly picks over 100,000 applications for further consideration
in the D.V program. Through the months of March-August of the following year, people who won are sent their winner documents by regular mail.

Selection in the Green Card Lottery program does not automatically translate into a Green Card. After an
applicant has been chosen for further consideration, he or she will go through a series of steps with U.S. officials such as a security background check, a personal interview with a U.S. Consul and many forms to
fill out before she or she is grantedgranted a Green Card. Only after all checks out a person may be granted
a Green Card.

Green Card Lottery

Live and Work in the U.S.A. Usafis Green Card Lottery Application Service What is the U.S. Green Card Lottery? Each year, the Diversity Lottery (DV) Program makes 50,000 immigrant visas available through a lottery. If you receive a visa through the Diversity Visa Lottery Program you and your family will be authorized to live and work permanently in the United States. *Green Card Winners will get FREE Airline ticket to the USA Can I Win? There are 2 simple requirements to participate in this USA Green Card Lottery. Find out whether you are eligible. FREE Eligibility Test! Important to all visitors Green Card Lottery Application, will be available only online at the State Department dedicated website - No more regular mailing of applications. From the State Department Rule for the DV Program: "Alien petitioners for the Diversity Visa Program will no longer be permitted to submit a petition by mail. Instead, the Department will require that all petitions be submitted to it in an electronic format, using an Internet website dedicated specifically to the submission and receipt of Diversity Visa." Click here to read more about the changes made to this year's American Green Card Lottery Program. Feature Offered US State Department Website Usafis Organization Website Same chance to all participants to win Free of charge Free airline ticket to winners to come to the USA* Allow sending photos by regular mail Click here for complete list overview Official U.S. Government Program The Green Card Lottery program was established under the Immigration and Nationality Act and was approved by the U.S. Congress Read the official Act from the State Department Can I register online to participate in the Green Card Lottery? Yes, the Usafis website is now accepting registrations for the American Green Card Lottery - Year 2009. Click here to start your registration process.

Examples of official winning notices: Winning Notification Approved Green Card Actual Green Card

Your new life in America starts here... American Green Card Lottery program benefits: 50,000 people and their families will live and work in the U.S.A. Official U.S. Government program, Congress approved. Your Chance to Live and Work in the U.S.A. Easy Online Registration and Assistance in every step. Double Chances for Married People to win the Green Card Lottery.

Annual Green Card Lottery of the United States USAFIS organization invites you to participate in the USA Green Card Lottery program where you may win the green card lottery and receive a green card to legally live and work in the United States. If you are not an American citizen, you may submit your green card lottery application to join the program and take advantage of the opportunity that has been offered to you by a program of the American government, through a law that has been passed by Congress - the "Diversity Green Card Lottery" program. Click here to get your Green Card Application today.

FAQ about the USA GREEN CARD LOTTERY

Can everyone participate in the USA Green Card Lottery? No. In order to participate in Green Card USA Lottery you must be a native of a country that appears on the list of qualifying countries and must meet the minimum requirements concerning education/occupational training or employment status. Why natives of certain countries can’t qualify for Green Card USA Lottery Program? Every year the US State Department issues a list of countries that are non-eligible for the Green Card USA program. Non-eligible countries are defined as those from which the United States has received more than 50,000 immigrants during the past five years. Every year the list changes. You can check your eligibility for free on this site. What can I do if I was born in a country that does not appear on the list of countries qualifying for USA Green Card Lottery? In such a case, you can participate by presenting a country of a different citizenship than the one you were born in. This is possible if your spouse or both of your parents were born in a country that appears on the list of qualifying countries. Can a husband and wife file Green Card USA application separately? Absolutely. It’s enough for one to meet the requirements, to submit two separate applications. If one of the two will be drawn in the lottery, the other spouse will be eligible for green card USA What is the minimum age to participate in the US Green Card Lottery Program? There is no minimum age, but there is the requirement to complete high school or to have work experience. Thus, the program is designated for 18 year olds and up. Does the US State Department get USA Green Card Lottery Applications all the year round? No, the US State Department receives applications for the USA Green Card Lottery during a specify time period. But you do not need to worry about the submission period. Using the Usafis Organization services we will ensure your Green Card application is submitted on time. Does participation using the on-line system ensure winning or increase the chances of winning Green Card USA? No. The service and the online system is designed to assist you in preparing the application, helping people with no scanner to scan their photos, ensures that the application is submitted online to the dedicated State Department website at the submission period and more. The use of the Usafis Organization services is at your discretion. The service confirms that you meet the minimum requirements; that the information on the application is complete. The objective of the service is to reduce the number of disqualified green card applications (in a previous Green Card Lottery program, 3 million forms were disqualified out of 10 million forms that were sent, due to format and details errors). You must remember that only online submissions will be made possible in a dedicated State Department website - no offline forms and/or applications are required.